A brief followup to this post in light of recent events.

Free and Fair Elections

Polymarket has an open market 'Venezuela Presidential Election Winner'. Its description is as follows:

The 2024 Venezuela presidential election is scheduled to take place on July 28, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

In the case of a two-round election, if this candidate is eliminated before the second round this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Can you see any ambiguity in this specification? Any way in which [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) Free and Fair Elections

(02:21) How did other markets do?

(03:25) What does this mean for prediction markets?

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First published:
July 31st, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d4YjM6RWEoT3rBEHe/ambiguity-in-prediction-market-resolution-is-still-harmful

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Still Harmful” by aphyer

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Still Harmful” by aphyer