Ellen Zentner: Is a Soft Landing for the U.S. Still Possible?

This podcast episode explores the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2023, emphasizing the importance of the housing market, income and spending dynamics, the labor market, and inflation. The speakers present evidence supporting their base case expectation, highlighting data points such as bottoming housing prices and slowly recovering real wages. However, they acknowledge the risk of a recession due to banking pressures and tighter credit. The podcast also discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate hikes after the June meeting, projecting a gradual slowing in inflation and a potential series of rate cuts starting in March 2024.