【聊了什么】

7月13日，前总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒举行集会时，现场发生枪击案，特朗普右耳上部被击中。枪手在现场被特勤局击毙，枪击造成一名现场观众死亡。目前枪击案正被作为对特朗普的暗杀未遂进行调查。

我们在事件后第一时间录制了一起播客，对此事件及其影响进行了分析。我们还对历史上发生的针对美国总统的暴力事件进行了回顾。

本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月14日下午，播客录制后事件可能会有新的发展。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

众筹平台链接：

Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette
爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

00:00:24 枪击事件回顾

00:01:18 特朗普遭刺杀未遂对选情的影响

00:05:58 美国总统和总统候选人是世界上风险最高的职位

00:08:57 四年前和八年前民调的偏差

00:10:17 特朗普遭刺杀未遂让共和党空前团结

00:11:43 党代会引发的民调上扬

00:15:38 归根结底还在于摇摆选民

00:16:36 刺杀未遂重新定义特朗普的竞选形象

00:20:59 事件后续发展和两党反应相关

00:26:46 事件减轻了拜登被要求退选的压力

00:28:40 拜登团队和奥巴马团队的嫌隙

00:35:37 共和党和保守派对此事的反应和叙事

00:39:01 政治暗杀事件在美国历史上频频发生

00:46:13 对特朗普副总统人选的影响

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

【 What We Talked About】

On July 13, former President Trump was shot during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He sustained an injury to his upper right ear. The gunman was neutralized by Secret Service agents at the scene. The incident also resulted in the death of one rally attendee. Authorities are currently investigating the shooting as an attempted assassination of the former president.

We recorded this podcast shortly after the event to provide a timely analysis of the incident and its potential implications. Additionally, we offer a historical perspective by reviewing past incidents of violence against U.S. presidents and presidential candidates.

This episode was recorded on the afternoon of July 14, 2024, Eastern Time. The situation may have evolved since the recording of this episode.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

00:00:24 Overview of the shooting at Trump rally

00:01:18 How the assassination attempt affects Trump's campaign

00:05:58 U.S. Presidents and candidates face world's highest security risks

00:08:57 Analyzing polls from 4 and 8 years ago

00:10:17 GOP rallies behind Trump following assassination attempt

00:11:43 Post-convention bounce in the polls

00:15:38 Swing voters remain the deciding factor

00:16:36 Assassination attempt reshapes Trump's campaign narrative

00:20:59 Responses from Democrats and Republicans

00:26:46 Pressure on Biden to drop out eases after the incident

00:28:40 Friction between Biden and Obama camps

00:35:37 How Republicans and conservatives frame the incident

00:39:01 A look at political assassination attempts throughout U.S. history

00:46:13 Potential impact on Trump's VP pick

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

【拓展链接】

特朗普因遇刺“稳了”？学者：可以参考43年前的里根遇刺 https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v004jQUyxY7TELtgeS-_5Kxqq0oX4RSJw86rpRB7xUGnC--KQ__?spss=np&channelId=&aman=a1afdbD0d1Ebb4dd3cTe87Vdd4k25be219W4d5wdeb&gud=54a5958657

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/presidential-debate-biden-replacement

021 | 特朗普遭枪击受伤后，他赢定了吗？ Is Trump's Victory Inevitable After The Assassination Attempt

美轮美换 The American Roulette

021 | 特朗普遭枪击受伤后，他赢定了吗？ Is Trump's Victory Inevitable After The Assassination Attempt