This is a link post.

Robin and I just had an interesting 2-hour AI doom debate. We picked up where the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate left off in 2008, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.

My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) on the order of 50%.

Robin's position remains shockingly different: P(doom) < 1%.

I think we managed to illuminate some of our cruxes of disagreement, though by no means all. Let us know your thoughts and feedback!

Topics

AI timelines
The "outside view" of economic growth trends
Future economic doubling times
The role of culture in human intelligence
Lessons from human evolution and brain size
Intelligence increase gradient near human level
Bostrom's Vulnerable World hypothesis
The optimization-power view
Feasibility of AI alignment
Will AI be "above the law" relative to humans

Where To Watch/Listen/Read

YouTube video
Podcast audio
Transcript

About Doom Debates

My [...]

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Outline:

(00:48) Topics

(01:19) Where To Watch/Listen/Read

(01:28) About Doom Debates

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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First published:
July 8th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mdeDquqameec2ERe4/robin-hanson-and-liron-shapira-debate-ai-x-risk

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Robin Hanson & Liron Shapira Debate AI X-Risk” by Liron

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Robin Hanson & Liron Shapira Debate AI X-Risk” by Liron