【聊了什么】

灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？

在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。

本期播客录制于6月29日。

【支持我们】

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众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾

00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点

00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响

00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误

00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民

00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误

00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应

00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登

00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊

00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性

00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登

00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？

00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？

01:01:10 不负责任的预测

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice?

In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down.

This episode was recorded on June 29th.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances

00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate

00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape

00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team

00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters

00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy

00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate

00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden

00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate

00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate

00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down?

00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden?

00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden?

01:01:10 Update on our predictions

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应

012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?

美轮美换 The American Roulette

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?