SpaceX's value comes 'from the Starlink side of the business'

SpaceX is exploring a $175 billion valuation as rumors of a Starlink IPO or spinoff circulate for 2024. Chris Quilty, co-CEO of Quilty Space, observes that Starlink has evolved from a launch facilitator into a formidable competitor within enterprise, maritime, and government sectors, often rivaling its own launch customers. While SpaceX maintains a near-monopoly on heavy-lift launches through 2027—partly because Amazon’s Project Kuiper has absorbed most available industry capacity—its true value lies in drastically reducing launch costs. These costs have plummeted from $20,000 per kilogram to as low as $1,500, enabling over 350 planned satellite constellations. However, reconciling a $175 billion valuation remains difficult given that the total satellite communications market currently generates only $25 billion in annual revenue. To reach these projections, Starlink must successfully capture significant market share from traditional terrestrial fiber providers.