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"Expected value is not just about money. It can be measured in health, well being, happiness, time, self-fulfillment, satisfaction in relationships or anything else that affects you."

- Annie Duke

Annie Duke is an author, speaker and a consultant in the decision-making space. And as a former professional poker player who has won $4 million in tournament poker, I’d say she has figured out a thing or two in regard to making decisions (especially under pressure). Her book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller and today, we’re going to talk about her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.

In our conversation, Annie and I talk about her unique approach to the concept of quitting, drawing from her study of cognitive psychology and experience in playing tournament poker. We talk about why people tend to default in making bad decisions, and how learning to quit can actually be one of the best avenues you can take on the road to success. Annie walks us through the specific techniques she teaches for the art of decision making, and how you can apply these to your life (and choices) moving forward.

If you feel uncertain on whether or not you should quit (whether that be a job, a relationship, a goal, or even a system of habits) Annie’s simple and direct techniques will no doubt have you on the path towards making a clear decision. Her unique take on decision making backed by her study of cognitive psychology are the perfect combination for an eye opening conversation that I can’t wait for you to hear.

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Here's What You'll Learn:

Annie’s unique journey of going from a student of cognitive psychology to an award winning professional poker player to what she does today
How the concept of a 2-way door is important in helping us decide whether to pursue something or not
Why Annie doesn’t like the phrase “make your own luck” and what we should be doing instead (from a logical poker perspective)
Why quitting can be one of the greatest strategies available for reaching success
The real danger in staying where you shouldn’t…
The concept of “kill criteria” and how you can use it to know for certain whether or not it’s time to quit
What loss aversion means and how it’s stopping us from making progress
How we can use “expected value” to guide our decision making
Annie puts me in the hot seat to workshop my American Ninja Warrior goal
So…how do you REALLY know if you should grit it or quit it?

Useful Resources Mentioned:

Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Jeff Bezos' Two-Way Door Decision

RANGE: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World - David Epstein

Mindset: The New Psychology of Success - Carol S. Dweck, Ph. D.

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything - Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner

Thinking in Bets Substack

Alliance for Decision Education

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Guest Bio:

annie-duke-bio Annie Duke

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie’s latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.

Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute and serves on the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative.

Show Credits:

This episode was edited by Curtis Fritsch, and the show notes were prepared by Debby Germino and published by Glen McNiel.

The original music in the opening and closing of the show is courtesy of Joe Trapanese (who is quite possibly one of the most talented composers on the face of the planet).

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Ep218: How to Know (Without a Doubt) If It’s Time to Quit | with Annie Duke