Epistemic Status: Speculative. Dependent on intuitions about near-term AI tech and human psychology.

Claim: Within the next 1-3 years, many people will have an interaction with an AI avatar that feels authentically human. This will significantly amplify the public perception of current AI capabilities and risks.

An AI avatar is a realistic AI-generated render of a human (speech and video) that can have a real-time conversation with a human, for example over a video call.

The individual components needed to implement AI avatars already exist. AI is capable of holding a conversation over text, transcribing speech to text, and synthesizing natural-sounding speech.[1] Generating photorealistic video of a talking human is currently limited, but still impressive and making rapid progress.

Taken together, these capabilities mean it will soon be possible to create a realistic AI avatar. The first generation avatars will be a bit rough, especially the rendered video, but [...]

The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
January 5th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DsgHj5hxcPgb6rEnj/the-next-chatgpt-moment-ai-avatars

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“The Next ChatGPT Moment: AI Avatars” by kolmplex, southpaw

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“The Next ChatGPT Moment: AI Avatars” by kolmplex, southpaw