A few times, I've talked to an executive manager or early-stage investor, and this happened:

me: Here's the main plan. Now, we think the odds are good, but the most likely failure point is here. If necessary, we have an alternative plan for that part, which goes as follows...

them: (visible disgust)

I was so confused! Aren't contingency plans good to have? Sure, investors want to see confidence, but what they really want is confidence in the overall vision. They expect some things to go wrong along the way, maybe even requiring "pivoting" to a different product.

Well, I've gotten more experience since then, and thought about things more, and I think I understand the thought process now.

Imagine you're watching Star Wars, and the rebels are getting ready to destroy the Death Star. The guy planning the operation says:

OK, the primary [...]

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First published:
February 7th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hFDkSXd4cJ7G5SKEE/story-based-decision-making

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“story-based decision-making” by bhauth

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“story-based decision-making” by bhauth