(BONUS) From Choiceology: “The Superforecasters”

This podcast episode explores the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the challenges faced by the CIA in tracking him down. It highlights the importance of behavioral science in forecasting and decision-making. The episode discusses the efforts made by the CIA to locate bin Laden, the difficulties in obtaining concrete evidence of his presence, the National Security Council meeting to decide whether to proceed with the raid, the decision-making process that led to the authorization of the raid, and the execution of Operation Neptune Spear. It also introduces strategies to improve forecasting accuracy, including probability training, teaming, and tracking.