The Geopolitics of the Trump-Xi Meeting

The upcoming U.S.-China summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping centers on trade negotiations and geopolitical stability amidst heightened tensions. While the Trump administration seeks to frame the meeting around economic wins—highlighted by a delegation of 17 major U.S. executives—the reality remains fraught with competition in sectors like semiconductors and AI. The discussion also addresses the Iran conflict, where China faces limited leverage, and the volatile issue of Taiwan, where potential shifts in U.S. policy create significant uncertainty. Despite the desire for a "phase one" style trade deal, fundamental disagreements persist, making a substantive breakthrough unlikely. Instead, both nations appear focused on optics and short-term stabilization, aiming to project strength while avoiding further escalation in a relationship defined by complex, non-negotiable challenges. Treasury Secretary Yellen and other officials continue to work toward deliverables, yet the lasting impact of the summit remains uncertain.