ROI not AGI (Guest: Leonid Mironov)

China’s economic landscape is shifting as government "anti-involution" policies curb aggressive price competition, leading to the first positive producer price inflation prints in years. This structural change, combined with new corporate governance reforms prioritizing dividends and buybacks, signals a potential long-term improvement in Chinese equity valuations. Meanwhile, the global oil market remains resilient despite geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz, as industry participants have stress-tested supply chains to mitigate disruption. While equity markets currently ignore these geopolitical risks, technical indicators suggest a parabolic "blow-off top" in the semiconductor sector, with breadth divergence signaling potential volatility. Investors should monitor for a broader sector rotation as the current tech-led rally faces exhaustion, with materials and copper emerging as potential areas of interest once the speculative fever breaks.