I think smart people try things less often than they should, because of a cached mental pattern where you think of what might go wrong, and you find a foolproof countermeasure on the part of some antag, and so we call it off.

Stockfish, playing itself, might as well resign from the first move if you force it to give knight odds. Sensei(the Go AI), should do the same when it has to give 6 stones. Getting ready to go into the stock market, do I really think I have some edge that Adderall swilling quants and their AI pets haven't already priced in? (The pricing in, of course, is also priced in).

And yet Stockfish could wipe the floor with the breathing populace with knight odds. Sensei regularly beats kyu players with 6 stones (or would, if one could find a kyu player who isn't running the AI on their other tab), and my modest portfolio of index funds made me money last year. (But not provably more than....)

The robots, of course, are just benefiting from their imperfect adversaries mistakes. They play in a losing situation because, over time, their foes will crumble and ruin their own [...]

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First published:
May 7th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBhMGziEwA7FXNxhq/try-even-if-they-have-you-cold

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Try, even if they have you cold” by WalterL

LessWrong (30+ Karma)