Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war: the Saudis have now denied the U.S. military access to strikes from their bases and airspace, the U.S. cannot claim any net positive from this conflict, and Trump's best realistic outcome is some version of the Obama nuclear deal 2.0. He notes that both sides are being squeezed — Iran can't keep this going forever either — but warns that beyond the immediate political damage to Trump, the war has handed China tremendous long-term leverage, AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn't already tanked, and asymmetric warfare has once again proven it can beat superpower militaries. He argues Trump's request for $1 billion in taxpayer funds for a White House ballroom is political suicide — if Obama had made the same ask, the media firestorm would have been deafening — and that Congress approving the money would be handing Democrats an enormous political gift. He flags the FBI's new investigation into Virginia Democrat Louise Lucas, warns that nothing coming from Trump's DOJ can be trusted at face value, and argues the trumped-up charges against James Comey create reasonable doubt about every other case the administration brings. He warns the administration is actively poking the bear with African American voters in ways that could supercharge Black turnout and reshape the midterm calculus, flags the FBI investigation related to The Atlantic's story on Kash Patel's drinking (the bureau denies investigating the reporter, but the careful language suggests a leak investigation exists. He closes with a beautiful and personal commencement-style address to the graduating class of 2026 as his daughter prepares to walk.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Saudis have denied U.S. military access to bases & airspace

06:00 Trump is only going to get the nuclear deal 2.0 at best

07:30 Iran can’t keep this going as well, both sides being squeezed

08:30 U.S. can’t claim any net positive from this war

09:30 This is bad for Trump politically, but it’s bad for the US long-term

10:15 Trump has handed China tremendous leverage

11:00 AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn’t tanked

12:30 Asymmetric warfare beats superpower militaries

14:15 Greenlighting $1B in taxpayer funds for ballroom is political suicide

15:15 If Obama made the same ask, there would be a media firestorm

16:00 Congress giving Dems a huge political gift by approving funds

17:15 FBI launches investigation into Virginia dem Louise Lucas

18:30 You can’t trust the narratives from Trump’s DOJ

20:00 Trumped up charges against Comey create doubt in other cases

20:45 Administration is poking the bear with African Americans voters

22:00 Supercharged black turnout would change midterm election calculus

23:00 FBI investigation into Atlantic story about Kash Patel’s drinking

23:45 FBI denies investigating the reporter who broke the story

24:30 Denial language suggests a leak investigation exists

26:00 Worried about the future and for this graduating class

28:30 Chuck’s advice for the graduating class of 2026

29:15 Graduates are heading into a very uncertain future

29:45 Adulthood is not a race, don’t always need to hurry

31:00 The first job you take isn’t your forever job

32:00 Don’t confuse a setback with failure

32:45 Respect your elders and respect experience

35:00 Don’t be embarrassed by your struggles or disregard someone else’s

36:00 Life happens. Don’t wait for the perfect time for something

37:15 Road trips are the best way to learn about America

38:15 Don’t be a “Yeah, but” person

40:00 Life is not a competition with your friends’ lives

40:45 It takes a lot of hard work to get lucky

42:00 Sorry that we’ve brought grads into a very angry America

42:30 Talk to people who disagree with you

43:30 If you only experience America through an algorithm, you’ll misunderstand it

47:45 Ask Chuck

48:00 How would you approach teaching, more depth or more breadth?

52:30 Should we pay members of congress more?

56:15 What can make local law enforcement a more enticing job?

1:01:45 How does Trump’s drift towards lame-duck status play out?

1:06:15 Why do you think redistricting would create an electoral backlash?

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Chuck’s Commentary- Chuck’s Message To The Class Of 2026 + Trump’s DOJ Has No Credibility

The Chuck ToddCast