When will the Iran war hit food prices?

Rising fuel and fertilizer costs driven by conflict in the Middle East threaten to end the recent period of stable grocery prices in the United States. Food economist David Ortega from Michigan State University explains that because food production and distribution rely heavily on diesel and nitrogen-based fertilizers, price spikes in these sectors typically reach grocery shelves with a six-month lag. This delay suggests consumers could see grocery bills increase by 2 to 5 percentage points by late this year or early next. Perishable goods located around the store's perimeter—such as produce, dairy, and air-freighted seafood—will likely experience the first price hikes due to their high transportation and refrigeration requirements. While the U.S. faces affordability challenges, the disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz poses a more severe risk of a global food crisis for import-dependent nations in Africa and Asia.