Global FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown

Global financial markets are recalibrating as central banks navigate shifting inflation and growth dynamics. The Japanese Yen remains a focal point following Ministry of Finance intervention, though medium-term bearishness persists due to the Bank of Japan's policy mix and global rate cycles. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish undertones and signs of U.S. exceptionalism are challenging the previous dollar-bearish consensus, shifting the outlook toward a more neutral stance. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a hawkish trajectory, contrasting with the more gradualist approach of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In Europe, the Bank of England’s policy remains middle-of-the-road, while the Bank of Canada faces structural trade risks that temper its hawkish potential. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming payroll data and political developments, such as U.K. elections, as carry trades and idiosyncratic central bank policies continue to drive G10 currency performance.