Drill pickle: oil prices still misjudge shock

Global oil markets face an unprecedented supply shock as the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens energy stability, forcing a reliance on depleted strategic reserves and causing demand contraction in developing economies. Meanwhile, the upcoming French presidential election presents a volatile landscape; with Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, a fragmented opposition struggles to counter the populist-right National Rally, which remains the only certain candidate for the final runoff. Simultaneously, Brazil’s national football team enters the World Cup under intense pressure to secure a sixth title, reflecting the broader national anxiety surrounding the country's complex economic debt and the political challenges facing President Lula da Silva. These developments underscore a period of significant geopolitical and domestic uncertainty across energy, governance, and international sports.