Bitcoin is approaching the end of its current market cycle, signaling a transition toward a potential bear market. Historical analysis of halving events and time-to-all-time-high metrics reveals that the current cycle is reaching a point of exhaustion, despite the possibility of minor short-term rallies. Data on long-term holder supply confirms this trend, as major players are actively scaling out of their positions, mirroring patterns observed at previous market peaks. Furthermore, the inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin liquidity suggests that an impending dollar rebound, combined with a reduction in global liquidity, will likely exert downward pressure on risk assets. Consequently, current price levels offer a poor risk-reward ratio for long-term investment, with a strategic re-entry point anticipated around 2026.
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