Bitcoin is currently navigating a time-based capitulation range, signaling a transition into a bear market consistent with historical three-bull-year and one-bear-year cycles. Market structure analysis suggests that current price action mirrors previous distribution patterns, with critical attention directed toward liquidity sweeps at the 83.6k and 80k support levels. Rather than relying on limit orders, trading strategies should prioritize manual entry following confirmed price reclaims at these lows. Key pivot points in February and March will likely determine the formation of a lower high before a potential continuation toward the 50k-60k region later in the year. While the prevailing thesis remains bearish, a sustained move above the 100k threshold would invalidate this outlook and indicate a potential shift toward new all-time highs.
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