My forecast for $BTC’s movement over the next 3–6 months.

Bitcoin is currently in a complex market-maker distribution phase, signaling a bearish trend that necessitates further downside before reaching a definitive bottom. Historical cycle data suggests that bear markets typically last 350 to 400 days, implying that the current 170-day cycle remains in a consolidation period. Expect continued range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 for the next several months, potentially leading to a capitulation event below $60,000 by mid-year. Despite this short-term volatility, incremental long-term accumulation remains a viable strategy, as Bitcoin continues to outperform legacy assets like the Nasdaq. Building spot positions gradually—targeting the $45,000 to $65,000 range—mitigates the risk of being front-run, positioning for an expected price target of $160,000 to $180,000 over the next three to four years.