Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend, with current price action functioning as a relief rally rather than a definitive market bottom. Historical data indicates that previous cycles required significantly longer durations to establish macro bottoms, suggesting the current 123-day timeframe is insufficient for a reversal. Economic pivots since June 2025 consistently precede negative market reactions, with the April 29th pivot likely to trigger a 5-6% decline toward 70k. Furthermore, USDT dominance patterns and the 111-day Simple Moving Average confirm a distribution phase; a decisive move above 90k is necessary to invalidate the existing downtrend. By prioritizing historical price patterns over speculative narratives like ETFs or super cycles, the current strategy maintains a short position, anticipating a sweep of lower liquidity levels before a sustainable bull market can emerge.
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