Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced maritime oil traffic to single digits, creating a massive backlog of over 800 vessels that will likely take months to clear. Amena Bakr, head of Middle East Energy at Kepler, highlights that the persistent threat of mines and security risks keeps most commercial traffic away, while Iranian "shadow fleet" vessels continue to operate. Despite the severe supply disruption, oil markets remain strangely sanguine, largely due to speculative trading and political jawboning that mask the physical reality of tightening inventories. While major producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain production discipline, the global energy system faces long-term risks as the conflict drags on, potentially delaying any return to pre-war supply levels until 2027. This structural supply shock will eventually force prices to reflect the physical scarcity currently hidden by market volatility.