MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis

The Iran-driven energy shock is fundamentally reshaping global commodity markets, creating a structural shift that extends far beyond crude oil. Saxo Bank’s Chief Commodity Strategist, Ole Hansen, highlights that the current crisis disrupts refined products, fertilizers, and essential metals, signaling a move toward a higher, more persistent price floor for energy-intensive commodities. Extreme backwardation in energy futures offers potential tailwinds for investors, though it underscores deep-seated supply-side stress and logistical bottlenecks. Furthermore, the ongoing fertilizer shortage threatens to diminish future crop yields, likely triggering a new wave of food inflation. As the global economy transitions from "just-in-time" to "just-in-case" supply chains, the resulting inventory demand and supply constraints suggest that the current commodity bull cycle is far from finished, with significant implications for long-term secular inflation and asset allocation.