How Iran's Regime Changed...for the Worse

The military campaign launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, initially intended to trigger regime change through targeted assassinations, has instead backfired by consolidating power among the country's most radical elements. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his inner circle led to the selection of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaling a shift toward a more defiant and extreme leadership. New officials, including security chief Mohammad Bagher Zulkadar and Revolutionary Guard head Ahmed Vahidi, possess histories of violence and adhere to an apocalyptic military ideology that rejects domestic dissent. While severe wartime damage to Iran’s infrastructure and economy creates pressure for a negotiated settlement, the regime’s internal crackdown and newfound leverage in the Strait of Hormuz have hardened its stance. Ultimately, the war has left the Iranian government more radicalized and further from democratic reform than before the conflict began.