Global FX: Cease-fire, the dollar, DM/EM FX impact, IMF round-up

Financial markets are navigating a post-ceasefire environment characterized by two primary regime shifts: a transition from pro-cyclical to defensive growth and a move toward higher, stickier global inflation. While the ceasefire offers a cautious step toward stabilization, persistent energy price pressures and potential inventory risks in May necessitate a selective approach to currency strategies. The current macro landscape favors high-yielding currencies that provide a cushion against commodity volatility, with a continued preference for carry-efficient trades. Emerging market strategies emphasize overweight positions in Latin America and EMEA, while Asia remains more complex due to central bank resistance to rate hikes and idiosyncratic capital account management. Ultimately, the persistent inflation regime keeps the focus on carry, reinforcing a medium-term bearish outlook for the dollar that requires tactical precision rather than broad-based implementation.