SpaceX might be the biggest IPO ever but there’s a math problem no one’s pricing in. Once you factor in capital gains, you need to believe it’ll underperform the market by ~50% just to justify selling. That creates an invisible floor under mega-cap stocks and a market increasingly detached from reality. Meanwhile: Allbirds goes from $4B to $40M and pivots to “NewBird AI.” Seed valuations hit $175M — 3x YoY, above 2021 peak. And AI labs are allegedly planting stories on each other. This week on More or Less: SpaceX’s $19B revenue / $5B losses, the AI bubble, Anthropic $800B rumors, and why fund math is breaking

Chapters:

0:00 — Waymo vs. Uber: the autonomous tipping point

8:29 — Allbirds: $4B → $40M → “NewBird AI”

12:56 — Boom Supersonic and the data center pivot

15:17 — SpaceX IPO: bulls vs. bears

16:14 — The tax problem no one is pricing in

20:16 — Can mega-cap still 50x?26:47 — SpaceX breakdown: Starlink vs. launch

28:20 — Anthropic $800B rumors

30:08 — OpenAI vs. Anthropic: leaks and competition

31:08 — The model switching problem (no real moat)

33:36 — AI behavior shift: “ask the agent”

38:17 — AI labs running oppo research

40:05 — Seed valuations surpass 2021 peak42:00 — Fund math is broken

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Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

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