Up or Down from Here? Bears vs. Bulls

The crypto market currently faces a critical juncture in its fourth cycle, caught between a "wealth destruction" phase and a potential early bull market. While bulls point to institutional demand from MicroStrategy’s $7.6 billion Bitcoin acquisition, resilient ETF assets, and explosive revenue growth in AI as indicators of a bottom, bears emphasize that global liquidity has peaked and is entering a secular decline. Michael Nadeau, a cycle investor from the TDR podcast, notes that historical on-chain metrics—such as realized price and MVRV scores—have not yet reached the deep-value capitulation levels typical of past bear markets. With global fiscal impulses stalling and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran, the market remains in a high-stakes battle between those expecting a swift recovery and those anticipating a more prolonged, volatile reset before the next growth phase.