The Growing Risk of Great Power War: A Conversation with Arne Westad

Great power war remains a tangible threat in the current era of multipolarity, mirroring the volatile geopolitical landscape that preceded World War I. Yale professor Arne Westad argues that the Cold War is an inadequate framework for understanding modern U.S.-China relations, as today’s tensions are defined by rapid technological shifts, rising mutual distrust, and a lack of effective arms control. Taiwan serves as a critical flashpoint, possessing the nationalist, territorial, and strategic complexities of 1914-era Bosnia, Alsace, and Belgium. Because modern great power conflict would likely result in total war—causing catastrophic loss of life and generational instability—preventing such an outcome requires urgent, concrete diplomatic engagement. Leaders must prioritize clear communication regarding strategic intentions and revive international mechanisms for stability to avoid the complacency that historically allowed localized crises to escalate into global disasters.