Natural Gas in Focus: Iran Conflict Could Have ‘Very Painful’ Consequences

The podcast explores the potential implications of a natural gas supply shock amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the impact of reported attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure. It highlights the seasonality of natural gas demand, driven primarily by winter heating needs, and how this creates a tight deadline for addressing supply disruptions. Samantha Dart, co-head of Global Commodities Research, notes that while natural gas prices have risen, they haven't fully reflected the magnitude of the disruption, especially considering Asia's reliance on Qatari LNG. The conversation further explores the potential for demand destruction through fuel switching and industrial shutdowns, as well as the limitations of U.S. LNG exports in compensating for the shortfall. The discussion concludes with best-case and worst-case scenarios for Europe, emphasizing that the duration of the disruption is a critical factor.