We are excited to publicly introduce the Laboratory for Importance-sampled Measure and Bayesian Observation (LIMBO), a small research group working at the intersection of cosmological theory, probability, and existential risk. We believe that the mechanisms by which observers continue to exist in the universe are important, neglected, and tractable to study and influence.

Since our founding in October 2024, we have developed a mathematical framework for doing anthropic reasoning about rare-event estimation, and we have obtained significant empirical evidence which validates this framework. This empirical evidence was not cherry-picked: at LIMBO, we believe in putting our money where our mouth is, and we have a strong track record of success in financial and prediction markets downstream of the use of our framework. We are actively engaged in policy work, including semiconductor supply chain advocacy and foreign policy research. Our team includes researchers with expertise in importance sampling, rare-event estimation, and reliability engineering, as well as a foreign policy expert. We are also strong believers in giving back to the community, and have made high-impact open-source contributions, as we will discuss further in section 7.

We are seeking funding. Our previous revenue source (a prediction market strategy derived from our [...]

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Outline:

(01:48) 1. We live in interesting times

(04:40) 2. Importance sampling

(05:58) 3. What the training data feels like from the inside

(07:13) 4. The observation selection effect

(09:26) 5. What the simulator is asking

(12:17) 6. A moral imperative

(13:52) 7. What we do at LIMBO

(15:46) 8. Our funding situation

(19:14) 9. Why you should fund us

(20:56) FAQ

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
April 1st, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f7YxHQHedsPdWywCG/limbo-who-we-are-what-we-do-and-an-exciting-high-impact

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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“LIMBO: Who We Are, What We Do, and an Exciting High-Impact Funding Opportunity” by faul_sname

LessWrong (30+ Karma)