The Risk of Great Power Wars | Prof. John Mearsheimer

The current global landscape is defined by two simultaneous Cold Wars: one between the United States and China in East Asia, and another between the United States and Russia in Eastern Europe. This shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar environment with two distinct great power competitions makes the present era significantly more dangerous than the original Cold War. Specifically, a conflict in East Asia over the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or Taiwan is more likely than a NATO-Warsaw Pact clash was in Central Europe. While a Cold War-era conflict carried the immediate, deterrent threat of total nuclear incineration, the perceived smaller scale of potential maritime or territorial wars in Asia lowers the threshold for engagement. Consequently, the reduced consequences of a U.S.-China confrontation paradoxically increase the probability of military conflict breaking out compared to the 1947–1989 period.