Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson

The conversation centers on the global implications of Operations Epic Fury and Rising Lion, particularly focusing on the Strait of Hormuz. Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, draws parallels between current tensions and historical conflicts like the Gallipoli campaign in World War I, highlighting the enduring strategic importance of choke points. The discussion explores the potential for asymmetric warfare, referencing Ukraine's successful use of sea drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet, and questions whether the U.S. military can achieve complete suppression of Iranian firepower in the Strait. Ferguson and McLean consider China's perspective, suggesting that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz presents strategic opportunities for China to exert control over Taiwan.

Outlines

Part 1: Historical Context, Chokepoints

Part 2: Modern Warfare, Technology

Part 3: Iranian Crisis, Strategic Risks

Part 4: Global Implications, China

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School of War

Part 1: Historical Context, Chokepoints

Introduction to the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Historical Parallels with Gallipoli

Chokepoints: Historical Significance of the Dardanelles and Modern Economic Implications

The Dardanelles Campaign: Bureaucratic Logic, Unintended Consequences, and Modern Lessons

Part 2: Modern Warfare, Technology

Asymmetric Warfare: Ukraine's Success in the Black Sea and Implications for the U.S.

Ferguson's Law: Fiscal Constraints and the Revolution in Military Affairs

Drone Warfare: Ukraine's Lessons Unheeded and the Iranian Threat

Part 3: Iranian Crisis, Strategic Risks

Epic Fury: Justified Action or Miscalculated Risk?

The Iranian Regime: Radicalism, Resilience, and Historical Parallels

The Challenge of Reopening the Strait and the Limits of U.S. Firepower

Part 4: Global Implications, China

China's Perspective: Taiwan, Strategic Opportunities, and the Three-Body Problem

Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson

School of War

Part 1: Historical Context, Chokepoints

00:00Introduction to the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Historical Parallels with Gallipoli

Introduction to the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Historical Parallels with Gallipoli

02:47Chokepoints: Historical Significance of the Dardanelles and Modern Economic Implications

Chokepoints: Historical Significance of the Dardanelles and Modern Economic Implications

09:19The Dardanelles Campaign: Bureaucratic Logic, Unintended Consequences, and Modern Lessons

The Dardanelles Campaign: Bureaucratic Logic, Unintended Consequences, and Modern Lessons

Part 2: Modern Warfare, Technology

17:31Asymmetric Warfare: Ukraine's Success in the Black Sea and Implications for the U.S.

Asymmetric Warfare: Ukraine's Success in the Black Sea and Implications for the U.S.

22:27Ferguson's Law: Fiscal Constraints and the Revolution in Military Affairs

Ferguson's Law: Fiscal Constraints and the Revolution in Military Affairs

26:18Drone Warfare: Ukraine's Lessons Unheeded and the Iranian Threat

Drone Warfare: Ukraine's Lessons Unheeded and the Iranian Threat

Part 3: Iranian Crisis, Strategic Risks

30:45Epic Fury: Justified Action or Miscalculated Risk?

Epic Fury: Justified Action or Miscalculated Risk?

36:57The Iranian Regime: Radicalism, Resilience, and Historical Parallels

The Iranian Regime: Radicalism, Resilience, and Historical Parallels

44:34The Challenge of Reopening the Strait and the Limits of U.S. Firepower

The Challenge of Reopening the Strait and the Limits of U.S. Firepower

Part 4: Global Implications, China

49:30China's Perspective: Taiwan, Strategic Opportunities, and the Three-Body Problem

China's Perspective: Taiwan, Strategic Opportunities, and the Three-Body Problem