John Mearsheimer: U.S. Already Lost Iran War - No Off-Ramp in Sight

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran represents a strategic failure, as the U.S. lacks a viable off-ramp and remains trapped by the false assumption of escalation dominance. Relying solely on strategic air power to force regime change ignores the historical reality that such campaigns rarely succeed against formidable adversaries without ground forces. Iran maintains a strong hand by leveraging its ability to inflict massive damage on vulnerable regional petroleum infrastructure and desalination plants, which are critical to the survival of Gulf states and the global economy. Furthermore, the U.S. administration’s reliance on inaccurate intelligence and the influence of Prime Minister Netanyahu have led to a precarious situation where the U.S. risks its credibility and global standing. Meanwhile, European nations continue to follow U.S. policy despite the catastrophic economic consequences and the resulting erosion of their own strategic autonomy.