The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here.

Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download.

Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out. Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

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Risk off as war in Iran escalates. Also: possible drivers of weaker gold here.

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