Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara

Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara discuss building a regulated prediction market in the U.S., detailing their initial struggles for CFTC approval and the lawsuit over election contracts. They emphasize the importance of a regulatory-first approach for mainstream and institutional adoption, driven by a desire to create a credible, U.S.-based financial market. The conversation explores Kalshi's rapid growth, with February volume reaching $10.4 billion, and the shift from broker-dependent growth to organic, direct user engagement. They also highlight the unique liquidity model, where a community of "super forecasters" and "guys in the garage" play a crucial role in market making, often outperforming traditional institutions. The discussion touches on the potential impact of prediction markets on politics, the nuances of insider trading, and the future of market verticals like compute and collectibles.