This podcast episode explores the idea that unpredictable events are more common than we think, using Littlewood's Law of Miracles as a basis. It discusses the concept of complex adaptive systems in the stock market and how seemingly rational actions can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The episode also delves into the psychological reasons behind humans seeking certainty and how this influences financial behavior. It contrasts wealth creation and preservation strategies, emphasizing the importance of managing overconfidence and establishing behavioral guardrails. Additionally, it suggests creating a "play account" for investment tinkering and discusses the challenges of identifying and investing in trends.
