Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

The Odd Lots podcast explores the potential for a major oil shock resulting from escalating conflict in Iran, particularly focusing on the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, joins the hosts to discuss the surprising market reaction and the possibility of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel. The conversation covers the fragility of the oil supply chain, the role of strategic petroleum reserves, and the potential for demand destruction in lower-income countries. Johnston highlights the counterintuitive situation where Russia could benefit as a swing producer due to the disruption. The hosts also examine the potential consequences of curbing oil exports, including regional supply imbalances and the risk of creating fuel shortages.