Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the massing of Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border and the Biden administration's efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. What is Putin's motivation for the actions of the last several months? Are the Biden team's threats of crippling economic sanctions in the case of an invasion credible? How will the different interests of individual NATO allies affect what President Joe Biden is able to promise in upcoming discussions? Could our handling of this potential crisis make it more likely that China will try to take Taiwan? Chris has some thoughts on media coverage of Omicron, Zack wishes Donald Trump would stop praising leaders with authoritarian tendencies, and Melanie laments that the Biden administration has still not developed an economic strategy for Asia.

Links:

Josh Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, "Acting Too Aggressively on Ukraine May Endanger It—and Taiwan," Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2021.

Kori Schake, "Russia's Aggression in Ukraine Is Backfiring," The Atlantic, Dec. 29, 2021.

"Purdue Sends Message to China," Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17, 2021.

Yuka Hayashi, "US on Sidelines as China and Other Asia-Pacific Nations Launch Trade Pact," Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2022.

Francis J. Gavin, "Is Team Biden Winning?", Texas National Security Review, Dec. 30, 2021.

Andrew Kramer, Steven Erlanger, and David Sanger, "Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal with NATO," New York Times, December 17, 2021.

Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, "The Myth of Russian Decline," Foreign Affairs, Oct. 19, 2021.

Michael Crowley and Julian E. Barnes, "How Far Would Biden Go to Defend Ukraine Against Russia?", New York Times, Nov. 25, 2021.

Sauli Niinisto, New Year's Speech, Presidentti.fi, Jan. 1, 2022.

Michael Crowley, "Biden Stand on Ukraine is a Wider Test of US Credibility Abroad," New York Times, Dec. 16, 2021.

Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Handssler, and Nicole Gaouette, "House Lawmakers Push Biden Administration to Do More to Deter Russian Aggression against Ukraine," CNN, Dec. 14, 2021.

Mark Cancian, "What Would it Take to Defend Ukraine? Potentially, Billions of Dollars," Breaking Defense, Dec. 7, 2021.

Jennifer Millman, "NY COVID Hospitalizations Top 2021 Surge Levels; Omicron Quintuples Risk of Breakthrough Cases," NBC New York, Jan. 3, 2022, https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-covid-hospitalizations-top-2021-surge-levels-as-omicron-drives-95-of-cases/3476250/.

"Future Foreign Policy series featuring Ambassador Robert Zoellick," New American Engagement Initiative, Jan. 19, 2022, 12:00 p.m. ET, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-series-featuring-ambassador-robert-zoellick/.

A Heavy Price to Pay?

Net Assessment