在延宕多时的弃核谈判失败后，美国和以色列上个星期六启动了对伊朗的军事攻击。在行动的第一天，美以联军空袭击中伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊所在地，哈梅内伊与多名伊朗高级官员遇袭身亡。

伊朗随即展开全面反击，发射导弹空袭海湾地区设有美军基地的国家，包括卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、约旦、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯，并封锁了全球能源运输大动脉霍尔木兹海峡。

这场战争目前仍在激烈进行。美国总统特朗普表示，行动最初预计持续四至五周，但美军有能力维持更久，“更大规模的行动还在后头”。特朗普宣称，行动目标是摧毁伊朗的导弹能力、海军力量，确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器，且无法继续在境外武装资助并指挥恐怖组织。

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与台湾中兴大学副教授兼当代南亚与中东研究中心主任崔进揆解析美国是否会在中东陷入一场持久战？这场战争会否改写中东地缘政治格局？

延伸阅读：

This week, the Middle East is engulfed in a rapidly escalating war following the breakdown of long-stalled nuclear talks with Iran and the launch of a joint US–Israeli military operation against Iranian targets. On Saturday, the United States and Israel struck key military and nuclear-related sites across Iran in the opening phase of the campaign.

Tehran has responded with a sweeping counterattack, firing missiles and drones at Israel and at US military bases in several Gulf countries, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Iran has also severely disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, jolting oil prices and unnerving financial markets worldwide.

The fighting is intensifying by the day, with no clear end in sight. US President Trump has warned that the initial phase of operations could last four to five weeks, while insisting that American forces are prepared for a longer campaign and a possible escalation. His stated goals are sweeping: to degrade Iran’s missile arsenal and navy, to permanently block Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and to curb its ability to arm, fund, and direct militant and terrorist groups abroad.

All of this raises urgent questions for the region and the world: Will the United States be drawn into another long and open-ended war in the Middle East? And how might this conflict redraw the geopolitical map of the region for years to come?

In this episode of the Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong speaks with Chin-Kuei Tsui, Associate Professor at the Graduate Institute of International Politics and Director of the Centre for Studies on South Asia and the Middle East at National Chung Hsing University in Taiwan, to unpack the stakes, scenarios, and possible endgames of this fast-moving crisis.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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美国攻打伊朗：以色列称霸中东 Iran war: Redrawing the Middle East map

东谈西论