In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cem on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds

03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation

03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression

05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation

07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise

09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter

11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April

17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences

22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns

32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility

45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later

50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control

57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged