Global Data Watch Weekender: What could go wrong?

The podcast explores potential disruptions to the economic outlook for 2025-2026, moving beyond the fading impact of trade wars. The conversation highlights the tech boom and resulting supply bottlenecks in areas like RAM chips, potentially causing inflationary pressures. A key focus is on the impact of AI on the labor market, with discussion on whether AI will primarily drive demand or create significant inflationary pressures. The speakers debate the likelihood of the Fed easing, considering scenarios from a Goldilocks economy to a disorderly repricing of interest rates. They also assess the probabilities of recession versus continued expansion, disagreeing on the potential for wealth effects to continue driving consumer spending.