Ep. 153: AI, Alignment, and the Scaling Hypothesis | Dwarkesh Patel

The podcast features an interview with Dwarkesh Patel, a podcaster known for his in-depth research and broad intellectual range, focusing on the future of AI and the scaling hypothesis. Patel estimates a 70% chance that current AI approaches will lead to AGI within 10-20 years, while acknowledging potential data bottlenecks. He addresses concerns about "poison pill" data and the ability of AI models to generalize. Patel also touches on the AI alignment problem, expressing skepticism about narrowly defining AI values and a preference for a future where AI pursues diverse goals beyond human control. He suggests that progress in AI will depend on reinforcement learning and the ability of models to evaluate each other's performance.