TIP794: Keynes And The Markets w/ Kyle Grieve

John Maynard Keynes' evolution as an investor, from speculator to value-oriented, is examined, highlighting lessons applicable to modern investors. Initially relying on macroeconomic insights, Keynes faced financial ruin twice due to overconfidence and mistiming. A turning point came with Edgar Lawrence Smith's work on long-term equity investments, prompting Keynes to focus on identifying businesses with compounding value. He emphasized understanding a business's fundamentals over short-term market predictions, advocating for concentrated bets in well-understood enterprises. The importance of temperament, adaptability, and a systematic approach to investing, as opposed to reactive trading based on narratives, is underscored. Keynes' shift towards longer holding periods and businesses that didn't require constant market validation is presented as key to his eventual success.