The situation in AI in 2026 is crazy. The confrontation between Anthropic and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is a new level of crazy. It risks turning quite bad for all. There's also nothing stopped it from turning out fine for everyone.

By at least one report the recent meeting between the two parties was cordial and all business, but Anthropic has been given a deadline of 5pm eastern on Friday to modify its existing agreed-upon contract to grant ‘unfettered access’ to Claude, or else.

Anthropic has been the most enthusiastic supporter our military has in AI and in tech, but on this point have strongly signaled they with this they cannot comply. Prediction markets find it highly unlikely Anthropic will comply (14%), and think it is highly possible Anthropic will either be declared a Supply Chain Risk (16%) or be subjected to the Defense Production Act (23%).

I’ve hesitated to write about this because I could make the situation worse. There's already been too many instances in AI of warnings leading directly to the thing someone is warning about, by making people aware of that possibility, increasing its salience or creating negative polarization and solidifying [...]

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Outline:

(01:32) This Standoff Should Never Have Happened

(06:07) Anthropic Cannot Fold

(07:12) Dean Ball Gives a Primer

(10:57) What Happened To Lead To This Showdown?

(18:05) Simple Solution: Delayed Contract Termination

(18:59) Better Solution: Status Quo

(19:29) Extreme Option One: Supply Chain Risk

(25:56) Putting Some Misconceptions To Bed

(28:16) Extreme Option Two: The Defense Production Act

(41:23) These Two Threats Contradict Each Other

(42:40) The Pentagons Actions Here Are Deeply Unpopular

(45:45) The Pentagons Most Extreme Potential Asks Could End The Republic

(48:07) Anthropic Did Make Some Political Mistakes

(49:13) Claude Is The Best Model Available

(50:55) The Administration Until Now Has Been Strong On This

(51:50) You Should See The Other Guys

(53:16) Some Other Intuition Pumps That Might Be Helpful

(53:55) Trying To Get An AI That Obeys All Orders Risks Emergent Misalignment

(01:00:13) We Can All Still Win

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First published:
February 25th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rmYB4a7Pskw7DLpCh/anthropic-and-the-department-of-war

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

A bar graph showing public opinion on government access to AI technology for military use.

Bar graph showing public opinion on developing versus banning autonomous weapons by voting group.

Two-panel comic contrasting AI safety researcher expectations versus reality with legal enforcement threats.

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“Anthropic and the Department of War” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma)