Collison Brothers Join, Bill Gurley Joins (Gurlin' Down A Dream)

The co-hosted podcast episode centers on the evolving landscape of AI, its impact on various industries, and the challenges and opportunities it presents. Discussions range from the role of independent research in moving markets, as seen with the Citrini report, to the potential for AI to reshape traditional business models. Guests like Stripe's Collison brothers offer insights on economic trends and the rise of "agentic commerce," while Bill Gurley discusses career paths in an age of rapid technological advancement. The hosts and guests explore the tension between AI's deflationary potential and its capacity to unlock new value, touching on topics like open-source software, real estate commissions, and the need for new regulatory frameworks. The episode also covers new products, funding announcements, and the cultural impact of AI, including its influence on art and entertainment.

Outlines

Part 1: Market Analysis and the AI Narrative

Part 2: Regulation, Open Source, and Industry Shifts

Part 3: Stripe and the State of the Global Economy

Part 4: Career Building and Venture Capital Insights

Part 5: Notion and AI-Enabled Productivity

Part 6: Global Competition and Technical Innovation

Part 7: Enterprise AI and Software Evolution

Part 8: AI Underwriting and Specialized Infrastructure

Part 9: The Future of Computer Interaction

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Part 1: Market Analysis and the AI Narrative

00:03The Citrini Report and the Rise of Independent Research in Market Analysis

The Citrini Report and the Rise of Independent Research in Market Analysis

08:18AI's Uncertainty: Competing Science Fiction Narratives and the Lack of Real-World Data

AI's Uncertainty: Competing Science Fiction Narratives and the Lack of Real-World Data

11:14AI Predictions, Institutional Adaptation, and the DoorDash Debate

AI Predictions, Institutional Adaptation, and the DoorDash Debate

Part 2: Regulation, Open Source, and Industry Shifts

15:50Antitrust Regulation, Open Source Software, and the Role of AI in Software Development

Antitrust Regulation, Open Source Software, and the Role of AI in Software Development

24:20Real Estate Disintermediation, Kim Kardashian's Drink Update, and the Citrini Piece

Real Estate Disintermediation, Kim Kardashian's Drink Update, and the Citrini Piece

27:25The Software Mega Cycle, Anthropic's Job Offer, and the Supreme Shure MV7 Microphone

The Software Mega Cycle, Anthropic's Job Offer, and the Supreme Shure MV7 Microphone

33:40Jane Street's Insider Trading Allegations, Capybara Simulator, and the Need for a TVPN Game

Jane Street's Insider Trading Allegations, Capybara Simulator, and the Need for a TVPN Game

Part 3: Stripe and the State of the Global Economy

37:46Censoring "War", XAI's Pentagon Deal, and Stripe's Announcements with the Collison Brothers

Censoring "War", XAI's Pentagon Deal, and Stripe's Announcements with the Collison Brothers

45:50Stripe's Data: The Economy's Good Shape and the Singularity's First Quarter

Stripe's Data: The Economy's Good Shape and the Singularity's First Quarter

52:36AI Value, Incubations, and the Importance of Product Specifics at Stripe

AI Value, Incubations, and the Importance of Product Specifics at Stripe

Part 4: Career Building and Venture Capital Insights

1:02:01Bill Gurley on "Running Down a Dream" and the Rapid Spread of AI Narratives

Bill Gurley on "Running Down a Dream" and the Rapid Spread of AI Narratives

1:11:13Hyper-Financialization, Durable Skills, and the Future of Venture Capital

Hyper-Financialization, Durable Skills, and the Future of Venture Capital

1:17:32AI Backlash, Retail Investors, and the Need for Easier Public Markets

AI Backlash, Retail Investors, and the Need for Easier Public Markets

1:25:04Venture Capital's Mandate and the Importance of Curiosity

Venture Capital's Mandate and the Importance of Curiosity

Part 5: Notion and AI-Enabled Productivity

1:27:38Intuit's Pact with Anthropic, AI Customer Service, and the Supreme FRED Hoodie

Intuit's Pact with Anthropic, AI Customer Service, and the Supreme FRED Hoodie

1:34:00Notion's Customer Agent: Multiplayer Agents for Knowledge Work

Notion's Customer Agent: Multiplayer Agents for Knowledge Work

1:40:20Vibe Coding, Model Agnosticism, and the Future of AI-Enabled Software

Vibe Coding, Model Agnosticism, and the Future of AI-Enabled Software

1:44:17AI's Impact on Notion's Margins and the Power of AI-Enabled Tools

AI's Impact on Notion's Margins and the Power of AI-Enabled Tools

Part 6: Global Competition and Technical Innovation

1:49:25DeepSeek's New Model and the Distilgate Controversy

DeepSeek's New Model and the Distilgate Controversy

1:53:35Anthropic's Supply Chain Risk and the Power of Stablecoin Rails

Anthropic's Supply Chain Risk and the Power of Stablecoin Rails

2:02:04Distilgate and the Speed of Diffusion LLMs

Distilgate and the Speed of Diffusion LLMs

2:05:20The Future of Windsurf and the Importance of Hyper-Curiosity

The Future of Windsurf and the Importance of Hyper-Curiosity

2:11:22AI's Impact on Science and the Rise of the Marketing Engineer

AI's Impact on Science and the Rise of the Marketing Engineer

Part 7: Enterprise AI and Software Evolution

2:18:15Cognition's Business Growth and the Power of AI Agents

Cognition's Business Growth and the Power of AI Agents

2:23:30The SaaSpocalypse and the Importance of Software

The SaaSpocalypse and the Importance of Software

2:29:11The Future of Windsurf and the AGI Benchmark

The Future of Windsurf and the AGI Benchmark

Part 8: AI Underwriting and Specialized Infrastructure

2:34:55Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company and the Underwriting of Superintelligence

Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company and the Underwriting of Superintelligence

2:40:16AI Insurance Policies and the Chain of How Insurance Actually Works

AI Insurance Policies and the Chain of How Insurance Actually Works

2:44:11The Business of AI Insurance and the Importance of Standards

The Business of AI Insurance and the Importance of Standards

2:50:06MadX and the Best Chips Physically Possible for Large Language Models

MadX and the Best Chips Physically Possible for Large Language Models

Part 9: The Future of Computer Interaction

2:57:31Standard Intelligence and the Training of Computer Use Models

Standard Intelligence and the Training of Computer Use Models

3:04:35The Future of Computer Use and the Importance of Video

The Future of Computer Use and the Importance of Video