The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s recent climb to a new relative high signals a broadening market recovery, despite investor anxiety regarding AI-driven labor disruption and high capital expenditure. While concerns persist that AI may eliminate jobs, the necessary phase-in period—requiring the build-out of agentic application layers and workflow integration—suggests productivity gains are still in the early stages. Current market volatility reflects a typical investment cycle transition where capital rotates from structural losers, like long-duration software sectors, into classic cyclical winners. This shift is further influenced by expectations of tighter liquidity following Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, which has specifically pressured speculative small-cap growth. A quality cyclical barbell strategy featuring healthcare, industrials, and financials offers the best positioning as the market confirms an early-cycle economic expansion following the rolling recession of 2022-2025.
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