This is a link post.

A popular (#1 in Substack's Finance category) financial analyst - Citrini - published a "Macro Memo from June 2028" plotting a potential future of increasing AI capabilities, with a focus on financial markets.

This is not a person who has typically engaged in the usual LW discourse, making this an interesting outsider's perspective.

Some extracts:

The unemployment rate printed 10.2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% on the number, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs.

The euphoria was palpable. By October 2026, the S&P 500 flirted with 8000, the Nasdaq broke above 30k. The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to. Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied. Record-setting corporate profits were funneled right back into AI compute.

The headline numbers were still great. Nominal GDP repeatedly printed mid-to-high single-digit annualized growth. Productivity was booming. Real output per hour rose at rates not seen since the 1950s, driven by AI agents that don’t sleep, take sick days or require health insurance.

The owners of compute saw their wealth explode [...]

---

First published:
February 23rd, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TJaGXdvTbcJsSexvp/the-2028-global-intelligence-crisis-a-finance-oriented

Linkpost URL:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

[Linkpost] “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis - a finance-oriented vignette” by Rasool

LessWrong (30+ Karma)