“I think of everything as a bet” - Ex-SIG Quant Trader Andrew Courtney

The podcast explores the life and decision-making processes of a former quant trader, Andrew Courtney, at Susquehanna International Group (SIG), focusing on his transition from floor to electronic trading and his current ventures in prediction markets. Courtney details the intense, screen-focused nature of quant trading, the unique culture at SIG that included poker-based training, and how this environment instilled a "thinking in bets" mentality, influencing his approach to everyday decisions like schooling for his children. The conversation covers his work on Kalshinomics, an analytics tool for prediction markets, and his insights on identifying edges in less efficient markets, such as those related to obscure Grammy categories. Courtney also shares his perspective on the potential societal impacts of prediction markets, weighing their utility in providing probabilistic context to news against the risks of promoting degenerate gambling.