Jacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:13) - Discussion on Interest Rates and Political Interference

(01:29) - Casual Conversation and Personal Updates

(02:54) - Focus on Jerome Powell and Fed Criticism

(09:54) - Mechanics of the Federal Reserve System

(14:55) - Historical Context and Presidential Influence on the Fed

(25:35) - Scott Bessant's Role and Potential Impact

(33:58) - Critique of Janet Yellen's Bond Strategy

(35:02) - Challenges of Managing National Debt

(35:40) - Market Reactions and Yield Predictions

(39:49) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Deals

(44:26) - Inflation and Economic Indicators

(57:15) - Investment Strategies in Current Market

(01:08:28) - Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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