Another day, another METR graph update.

METR said on X:

We estimate that Claude Opus 4.6 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 14.5 hours (95% CI of 6 hrs to 98 hrs) on software tasks. While this is the highest point estimate we’ve reported, this measurement is extremely noisy because our current task suite is nearly saturated.

Some people are saying this makes superexponential progress more likely.

Forecaster Peter Wildeford predicts 2-3.5 workweek time horizons by end of year which would have "significant implications for the economy".

Even Ajeya Cotra (who works at METR) is now saying that her predictions from last month are too conservative and 3-4 month doubling time with superexponential progress is more likely.

Should We All Freak Out?

People are especially concerned when looking at the linear graph for the 50% horizon, which looks like this:

I claim that although this is a faster trend than before for the 50% horizon, there are at least two reasons to take these results with a grain of salt:

As METR keeps saying they're at near saturation of their task suite, which as David Rein mentions, means they could have measured an horizon of 8h or 20h depending [...]

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Outline:

(01:17) Should We All Freak Out?

(02:32) Why 80% horizon and not 50%? Wont 50% still accelerate the economy and research?

(03:10) Why Super Long 80% Horizons Though? Isnt 50% Enough?

(04:23) Why does Automated Coder Matter So Much? What about the economy? Vibe researching / Coding?

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First published:
February 20th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBwrmcY2uArZSoCtp/metr-s-14h-50-horizon-impacts-the-economy-more-than-asi

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Graph showing task length at 50% success rate for AI models over time, with trend lines.

Three graphs showing AI development timelines: software R&D uplift, coding time horizon, and compute efficiency.

Three graphs showing AI futures model timelines for software R&D uplift, coding time horizon, and effective training compute.

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“METR’s 14h 50% Horizon Impacts The Economy More Than ASI Timelines” by Michaël Trazzi

LessWrong (30+ Karma)